Note: This transcript was adapted from a radio script.
Previously on Stranglehold…
Jack Rodolico: Does it affect your life at all that you are in New Hampshire and you get to vote before other people? Would it affect you if the primary went away from New Hampshire? Like, do you think about it– ?
Richard Simmon: It wouldn’t affect me at all, I’ll tell you that. It’s– I do what I wanna do. And that’s the whole thing of New Hampshire — Live free or die, right?
Donald Trump: Our hearts beat to the words of the New Hampshire state motto: Live free or die.
Bill Gardner: It’s a story of inclusiveness…
Rob Tully: Basically, it came down to this: This is bullshit. We're New Hampshire.
Bill Gardner: …the American dream that anyone’s son or daughter could grow up to be president.
Sen. Carl Levin: I will pledge to the death to protect the New Hampshire primary, so help me god. It’s a reality we gotta change!
Tarazha Jenkins: I mean, it just seems like nobody has a true answer why New Hampshire is still first in the nation when you guys are just not diverse enough to represent America as a whole!
Kathy Sullivan: The most important thing that we can do is to save the New Hampshire primary, because without the primary, what is New Hampshire?
Jack Rodolico: What do you think it would be like if we didn't have the primary here? Interviewee: I think we'll be, we’ll be forgotten.
Joe Biden: It’s an honor to be able to come to New Hampshire again.
Josh Rogers: Joe loves you. Joe loves the first-in-the-nation primary. You know, meanwhile, when it doesn’t look like it’s gonna go his way, he’s on a plane to South Carolina.
Joe Biden: You have no idea how great it is to be back in South Carolina! (cheering)
We haven’t released an episode of Stranglehold for three years. Back then, we figured we’d said just about all there was to say about New Hampshire’s lock on the presidential nominating calendar. If we ever come back, we figured, it’d be because there’s something worth saying.
Leah Daughtry: Mr. Chairman, I’ve worked on my first presidential campaign in the state of New Hampshire when I was a student at Dartmouth College, and I worked on the presidential campaign of the Rev. Jesse Jackson.
That’s Leah Daughtry. She’s speaking on February 4 to a room of hundreds of Democrats — true believers, all: people who work for the party in every state and U.S. territory are in this room.
Leah Daughtry: New Hampshire is one of my favorite places. I go every year. I have the granite of New Hampshire in my muscles and my brain.
Leah is speaking in the moments before the room votes. The Democratic National Committee is about to decide to either hang on to tradition, or to create a new way to nominate presidential candidates.
Leah is a pastor. The room hangs on her every word.
(applause)
Leah Daughtry: Folks, I'm an oldest child. It was just me and my parents for a long time. And so I was always at the head of the line. And then my sisters arrived, and my brother arrived, and I had to make room. I would submit that family requires — we like to say we're a family – it means that some folk got to shift to make room at the table for others. (applause) We cannot say that Black voters and Latino voters are important and matter and make us wait.
[theme music in — drums]
I’m not gonna bury the lede. The reason I’m here right now with you is because New Hampshire’s “stranglehold” on the way we pick presidents, it looks like it’s losing its grip.
[theme music — sting]
From New Hampshire Public Radio, this is Stranglehold. I’m Jack Rodolico.
[theme music up and down]
What happens when an unstoppable force slams into an immovable object?
The demographic shift in this country—and especially within the Democratic Party — that’s the unstoppable force. If you’ve been following this news at all, you know the party finally shifted its presidential nominating calendar to give voters of color more sway. For Democratic White House hopefuls, New Hampshire is no longer the first official primary.
But the New Hampshire primary — or at least the people who see it as their job to protect it — that’s the immovable object. New Hampshire is refusing to back down, saying it’ll hold a Democratic primary first, even if the national party punishes the state for it.
It’s a major test of the stranglehold and its power.
And it was all set in motion by President Joe Biden. Which is funny because it’s a shift for Biden himself.
Joe Biden: Oh, yeah. Well, I tell you what. You guys are going to determine who the next President of the United States is going to be.
Sen. Joe Biden, in 2007, at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. He’s doing the thing presidential candidates do: pandering to the almighty wisdom of Iowa and New Hampshire voters.
Joe Biden: Seriously? I mean, no. No matter what big states move up, no matter what happens, the truth of the matter is, if you can't cut it in Iowa, New Hampshire, you're not in the game.
Thirteen years later, Biden proved himself wrong. Because in 2020, he navigated a path to the White House around New Hampshire and Iowa, not through them — a path that started in South Carolina. And once he was in the White House, Biden set a process in motion that dethroned those two states.
Josh Rogers: So are you intending to use this tape or this is just to chit chat?
Jack Rodolico: Yes.
Josh Rogers: Okay.
Jack Rodolico: I might. Did you have enough coffee?
Josh Rogers: Yeah.
Jack Rodolico: Okay.
[music in]
Josh Rogers, senior political reporter. Josh remembers that no matter how many times Biden tried, he could not win in the primary in New Hampshire.
Biden first ran for the White House in 1987. He stopped in New Hampshire to campaign on the heels of a ballooning plagiarism scandal.
Josh Rogers: He ended up quitting the race after getting into an awkward confrontation…
Voter to Biden: What law school did you attend and where did you place in that class? And the other question is…
Voice: Who cares?!
Joe Biden to voter: I think I probably have a much higher IQ than you do, I suspect…
Josh Rogers: He was kind of a blowhard. I mean, in his younger days, certainly the first time he ran…
Joe Biden to voter: And I'd be delighted to sit down and compare my IQ to yours if you'd like, Frank.
In ‘87, Biden dropped out before the Iowa caucuses.
[mux up and down]
Joe Biden: There'll be other opportunities for me to campaign for president.
Then, 2008. Biden’s second run.
Josh Rogers: The timing was tough. I mean, he was going against, like, you know, Obama and Clinton.
This time, Biden lost badly in Iowa, and drops out the same night.
Joe Biden: And let me make something clear to you, I ain't going away.
Then 2020, Biden loses the Iowa caucuses, limps to New Hampshire and loses here — badly.
Josh Rogers: He came in fifth.
Jack Rodolico: Fifth, he was fifth?
Josh Rogers: Well, it’s like Bernie, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren, Biden. That was at a real low ebb. I mean, everyone knew he was going to lose the primary. And it was tough, because, you know, his whole campaign was in some sense predicated on get to the big voting states in the South.
The night of the 2020 New Hampshire primary, Biden made a strategic choice. He left. When the results were announced that night, he was already in South Carolina.
Joe Biden: I– We just heard from the first two of the 50 states. Two of them. Not all the nation. Not half the nation. Not a quarter of the nation. Not 10%. Two! Two! Ha, so when you hear all these pundits and experts, cable TV talkers talking about the race, tell them it ain't over, man. We're just getting started.
He was right. Black voters, the party’s base, in South Carolina propelled Biden to the nomination, and then the White House.
[music up and down]
As president, Biden controls the Democratic National Committee. And the DNC controls the presidential nominating calendar.
For decades, many Democrats pushed the DNC to break Iowa and New Hampshire’s lock on the calendar. To prioritize more diverse states. Then, Biden comes along and wins the nomination and the White House doing just that.
For politicos, the next primary is always right around the corner. So pretty soon after Biden’s elected, Democrats start looking to 2024. And early last year, the DNC makes an announcement: The old calendar is scrapped. They’re making a new one, and it will prioritize three things:
One, diversity.
Two, competitiveness in the general election. Democrats want to hold presidential primaries in swing states.
And three, they want to hold early primaries in states where they feel elections are open and trustworthy.
With those criteria in place, the DNC opens an application process. They encourage local Democratic parties to make their case. Why should you vote for presidential nominees before other states?
The DNC sends a crystal clear message to Iowa and New Hampshire: If you want to stay first in the nation in 2024 and beyond, you have to fight for it.
The DNC gets 20 applications. They hold a slew of hearings in 2022.
Minyon Moore: Uh, New Hampshire has entered the room.
And look, I recognize that the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the National Democratic Party doesn’t sound like an awesome place where you wanna spend a lot of fun time. But there are gonna be some fireworks.
First, let’s listen in to the exchange between the committee and New Hampshire.
Minyon Moore: OK, we’re going to go ahead and get started. I know that they have thrown the committee off a little bit with the goodie bags. So… ladies and gentlemen, if you can look in your goodie bags a little later.
The goodie bags actually represent pretty well what New Hampshire is clinging to.
There’s maple syrup and chocolate in the shape of the state.
A mug from the Red Arrow Diner, a greasy spoon and legendary campaign stop.
A book written to celebrate the centennial of the New Hampshire primary.
It’s all very nostalgic.
Minyon Moore: You see they get very excited about trinkets. (laughs)
After the goodie bag ruckus settles, New Hampshire Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan lean hard into the stranglehold mythology.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: From our earliest days, New Hampshire has helped build American democracy.
Sen. Maggie Hassan: New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary forces candidates to talk to and listen to voters directly, making better candidates and making better presidents.
If you listened to this whole podcast you know these are the classic New Hampshire primary talking points: We do retail politics better than anyone! New Hampshire voters take their job seriously.
New Hampshire also said, despite how the state is characterized, it’s diversifying. Has been for years. Joanne Dowdell, one of New Hampshire’s reps to the DNC:
Joanne Dowdell: The face of New Hampshire is changing.
The committee is complimentary of NH and it’s presentation. But they also push back.
Like, on voting rights. They say: Republicans in New Hampshire’s gerrymandered State House have tried again and again in recent years to restrict voting access.
Donna Brazile: You guys used to be the gold standard.
And the committee really took issue with New Hampshire’s particular line of argument. Because New Hampshire dems weren’t saying New Hampshire should be an early state. They were saying New Hampshire must be first.
Committee Member 1: It's still not clear to me why, why you guys have to be number one as opposed to early on.
Committee Member 2: The retail politics, the one on one. I don't think that will change if one or two states go before New Hampshire.
[music up and down]
Throughout this whole application process in 2022, the White House is pretty much silent.
Then, in December, at the last possible moment, President Biden weighs in. In a letter to the Rules and Bylaws Committee the night before they’re going to vote on a new calendar, he lays out the primary calendar he thinks they should adopt. Here it is:
First, South Carolina votes.
Then, Nevada and New Hampshire on the same day.
The week after that, Michigan and Georgia together.
New Hampshire would go second – and it would have to share.
Jim Roosevelt, Jr.: All those in favor of the motion, please say “aye.” (“Aye!”) Oppose say, “nay.” (“Nay!”) So the yays clearly have it. And congratulations to all of us.
Those two nays that were outvoted? Committee members from Iowa and New Hampshire.
Now, the calendar isn’t official yet. It’s just a committee vote to send it to the full DNC to vote on in February 2023.
Still, the die is cast. This big change is underway.
And after the committee vote, the chair of the DNC, Jaime Harrison, tries to put a pleasant spin on the whole thing.
Jaime Harrison: I just want to say thank you to all of you, because even despite the raw emotions, we have carried ourselves in the most dignified manner that I've ever seen.
Well, up to that point at least.
[music in]
Here’s the problem:
The DNC awards New Hampshire this spot in the calendar along with an ultimatum. The Committee wants New Hampshire to expand early voting, and to repeal an old state law that says New Hampshire’s presidential primary must be first.
That’s a very bitter pill for national Dems to serve up to New Hampshire Dems. Because this ultimatum isn’t going to fly in the state’s GOP-controlled Legislature. But the DNC also isn’t about to carve out a special status for New Hampshire.
Now, on top of all that, the DNC gives this new calendar some teeth. If any state jumps the line, then the DNC will strip that state of half its delegates to the next national convention. If a candidate campaigns in a state that jumps the line, the candidate’s punished, too: If they win that state, the DNC won’t award them any delegates.
Basically, for states that don't follow the rules, it could be as if their primary never happened.
Here’s what it all adds up to. The DNC lays out this ultimatum to New Hampshire: Get these things done or you’re out of the early window entirely.
Gov. Chris Sununu: (applause) I have a very clear message for President Biden. You can come and try and take it, but it is never going to happen.
This plan becomes an easy target for New Hampshire Republicans. (To be clear, the DNC plan has no impact on the Republican presidential primaries.) New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who is currently flirting with his own presidential run, he frames the whole thing like President Biden is tossing the primary into a sack and running away with it.
Gov. Chris Sununu: (applause) It is just not in our DNA to give it up and take orders from Washington, D.C.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire Democrats are in an unenviable position. They’re defending themselves from Republican attacks — sometimes by blame shifting to the DNC.
Ray Buckley: Well, we certainly were surprised.
That’s Ray Buckley, chair of the state Democratic Party. He was “surprised,” despite the fact that the DNC was working on this calendar for almost a year. New Hampshire Dems like Buckley and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen also kept using this particular imagery about the national party.
Ray Buckley: This looks like a plan that was put together by some D.C. power brokers…
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: We don't think these decisions should be made just by party bosses…
Ray Buckley: …it brings back politics of the smoke-filled rooms...
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: …in back rooms someplace. The voters need to have a chance to weigh in.
Here’s what’s confusing about this argument from New Hampshire Dems.
“Smoke-filled back rooms” — that’s a metaphor now, but it used to be a real thing. It’s a reference to party bosses picking their general election nominees. It’s a callback to a time when voters had no say over who a party nominated for the general election.
The DNC did not cut out voters. They simply changed the order of who votes when for the party nominee. Even that word “smoke-filled” – it sounds sketchy and secretive. This was all live streamed on YouTube, and I didn’t see a cigarette burning.
New Hampshire dems get a little petty. A former house speaker says he’ll abandon Biden if he runs again, and a former governor predicts the entire state would turn on Biden. Both these guys are Biden loyalists.
Steve Shurtleff: I’ll look for another candidate before I support Joe Biden if he should go so far as to take away the first-in-the-nation primary.
John Lynch: Now we have four electoral votes, small number of votes, but we are a purple state and our four votes matter. And I think President Biden is putting those four electoral votes at risk.
At the next meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, committee members go off.
RBC Member 1: The recent press coverage coming out of New Hampshire is disturbing. It does not help us to have this divisiveness and share it in public.
RBC member 2: What New Hampshire is now arguing is that they can never, ever, ever change. And no one else in this wonderful country of ours can ever actually be in that mix at the beginning.
They start to say the quiet part out loud: New Hampshire, we know you always like to say you’re first, but you’re not. For decades, Iowa was first, you were second. And we voted to keep you second!
Mo Elleithee: We have maintained the tradition that New Hampshire has asked us to maintain.
Donna Brazile: Twenty-six presidential cycles. Twenty-six — we know your story. Let us allow another group of Americans to tell their story.
And here’s where New Hampshire Dems really get in trouble with their party. It’s with this old law that says New Hampshire must vote first.
Yes, it is true that New Hampshire Dems can’t change this law with Republicans in control of the statehouse. But it’s not like they’re saying they’re willing to change it. In fact, they say the law guarantees the state will defy the DNC’s plans. The law tells the Secretary of State to go seven days before any similar contest. So, if South Carolina is scheduled for Feb. 3, 2024, you can be sure New Hampshire is gonna hold a primary in the last week of January.
Here’s Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: Now, we have a state law that says we're gonna go first. So, we're gonna go first! (applause)
[music in]
To many Democrats, especially people of color outside of New Hampshire, this argument is ignorant.
Leah Daughtry: Hanging their argument on this 100-year-old privilege is really for me, as an African American woman, quite disturbing, in as much as this law that they passed was passed even before Black people had the right to vote.
[music up and out]
=========MIDROLL============
[ambi up]
It’s the first week of February, and the Democratic National Committee meets up at a hotel in downtown Philadelphia. This is the big meeting where the full party leadership will vote on the new primary calendar. I want to be there to see how it all goes down, so I get my press credentials and fly down from New Hampshire.
DNC member: Mr. Chairman, the floor is yours. (cheers, applause)
The day I show up, I follow the Democratic Party Chair, Jaime Harrison, as he hustles from room to room. Democrats break out into regional caucuses: Midwest, West, North, South. Harrison drops in on all of them, gives them all the same stump speech.
Jaime Harrison: Kevin McCarthy is just Airbnb in the house right now, y’all. (laughter) // Right now, Kevin McCarthy is just Airbnb’in’ it, right? (laughter) // Yeah, but he's one of those Airbnb tenants that just messed your place up. You've got to pull the carpet. You got to paint the wall. You'll funk it all up. // My grandma said, “You got just bleach everything down,” and we probably have to do that after Marjorie Taylor Greene…
He pats them on the back about the midterms, braces them for fights ahead. My ears perk up when he says this one thing to the Southern caucus.
Jaime Harrison is from South Carolina, he ran the Democratic Party there before Biden tapped him to run the DNC. And he talks about himself as the kind of person his party has always relied on, but long ignored: born Black and poor in the South.
Jaime Harrison: We are going to vote this weekend on a primary schedule that allows the South to stand up to be heard. (applause, cheers) And I am proud of that. You know, I just had an interview with a reporter just recently and he was talking about it. And the reporter asked me was, like, “What will they add to the mix?” I said, “Have you ever heard about the infant mortality rates of Black women? We would not have known about that on the presidential level but for Vice President Kamala Harris going into South Carolina campaigning, President Biden going into South Carolina, campaigning, talking to Black women about the health disparities. We all know about ethanol, and we know about it because of Iowa's prominence in the presidential primary, right? And that influenced in the policies that came out of the Democratic nominee.”
[crowd ambi]
Jack Rodolico: Test, test…
Party loyalists are lock-step supporting this new calendar. They’re taking their lead from President Biden and Chairman Harrison.
And that makes New Hampshire’s position all the more noticeable. Take Artie Blanco.
Jack Rodolico: Hi, Ms. Blanco?
Artie Blanco: Yes…
Artie represents Nevada on the Rules and Bylaws Committee. She’s not crazy about the idea of Nevada sharing a date on the calendar with another state. Still, she supports the change.
I ask what she thinks of the threats from New Hampshire — that regardless of the process, New Hampshire’s just gonna jump the line in 2024.
Artie Blanco: And yes, it's definitely… inconsiderate, to be quite honest with you. It's definitely more of a we're-better-than-everyone kind of attitude, which is not a value of the Democratic Party.
Jack Rodolico: That word “inconsiderate.” You searched for that word carefully, but it seems like that lands.
Artie Blanco: I think that landed because there is no consideration for any progress.
I wander the lobby, snagging interviews where I can. What do you think about the calendar, I asked. What do you think of New Hampshire?
John Graham: I guess they're hurt, you know? It always gave New Hampshire its identity.
This is John Graham, a delegate from New Jersey. To me, he represents a political reality in the party: It’s not only people of color, or people from states who have something to gain, who want this change.
John Graham: I loved goin’ up to New Hampshire with Hillary Clinton and John Kerry and everyone when they went up and when I was handling their campaigns, but sometimes change like this is important.
In my unscientific, hallway polling about the calendar and New Hampshire I came across just one person who was all in on New Hampshire being first. His name is Samay Sahu. He’s young, just 18, the national chairman of the High School Democrats of America.
And guess where he’s from? New Hampshire!
Samay Sahu: I totally agree with the DNC’s messaging and goal of promoting more diversity in our primary process. It just makes sense. But I think that it doesn’t have to be one way or the other with an ultimatum of New Hampshire not being first.
Samay is an impressive young man. He’s a high school senior, more engaged in politics than most of us ever will be. And I have to say, it’s a bit surreal to hear all of the New Hampshire talking points coming out of the mouth of an 18-year-old. In fact, I think Samay’s bluntness clarified for me what is so frustrating for national Dems.
Here’s the best analogy I can come up with: The Democratic party is a big extended family, and the primary calendar is Thanksgiving dinner. The party says, “Everyone has a seat at the table. New Hampshire, you sit right up here; here’s a great seat, just for you, one of the best!” And New Hampshire’s like, “I’m not sitting here. I’m sitting at the head of the table!” And then, instead of sitting at all, New Hampshire flips the table and walks out.
Samay Sahu: I think it’ll be alright. At the end of the day, I’d like to believe that the DNC is going to realize that there’s nothing that they can do regarding moving New Hampshire because we can’t change our state law.
Jack Rodolico: You think New Hampshire is going to stare them down and the DNC is going to buckle?
Samay Sahu: That's what we've been doing, and I think that's what's going to happen.
[ambi up and down]
Crowd: Joe! Joe! Joe! Joe!
Vice President Kamala Harris: And I present, President Joe Biden!
Crowd: Four more years! Four more years! Four more years!
President Joe Biden: Hello, Democrats!
That night the president and vice president drop in. It’s not officially a campaign stop, but it sounds like practice to me.
President Joe Biden: Some of you, although you've been good to me, I don't think you've really believed (laughter) that we were going to do as well as you did in the off-year election. But we got a lot more to do…
Crowd: Yes, we do! Four more years!
President Joe Biden: We’ve got a lot more to do.
Biden doesn’t mention the primary calendar, but he doesn’t need to. Everyone in the room knows he endorsed it. And he knows the next day, everyone in the room is gonna vote on it.
President Joe Biden: So, let me ask you a simple question: Are you with me?
Crowd: Yeah! (cheers)
(fade down ambi)
Jack Rodolico: Sorry. Excuse me… Gotta get the fuck out of here. It's too hot.
I don’t normally go to these kinds of political events. By the time the secret service allows people to start leaving, my ears are ringing and the air just tastes stale.
Jack Rodolico: It's so much cooler out here, holy crap! It all kind of puts New Hampshire's position into perspective because what a political party is about, above all else, is unity. So when you have one state kind of throwing’ up their hands being like, “But our law!” Nobody here gives a damn about that law. And it doesn't feel like a real obstacle to change, or at least that it shouldn't be. But it is…
[ambi up and down]
Jaimie Harrison: I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America… (fade down)
The convention room is as big as an airplane hanger, with chandeliers hanging from the ceiling, and rows and rows of folding tables labeled for each state and territory. I’m up on a press riser in the middle of the room, and on either side of the riser, down on the floor, there’s a microphone with people queuing up to speak about the calendar.
Jaime Harrison: The Rules and Bylaws Committee has presented its report and it’s moved its approval by the membership. Is there any discussion? [Second!] We do have discussion. I see…. Let’s hear from…
New Hampshire makes its case one last time. They don’t go so far as to ask people to join them in voting against the calendar, but they do want everyone to know they feel their hands are tied and they’re being treated unfairly.
Ray Buckley, Chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party:
Ray Buckley: The RBC knows full well that New Hampshire Democrats could not possibly unilaterally change state laws. They knew that the Republican leaders in the state would not bend to their will. And even knowing this, the RBC still decided that New Hampshire Democrats should be set up for failure.
Everyone knows how this vote is gonna go. And still, comments like this from New Hampshire seem to raise the temperature in the room. Many of the next speakers look in the direction of the room where New Hampshire is sitting as they speak.
John Verdejo: Be careful. All respect to the past and what you guys have done, we can do it, too. Just be careful.
Congresswoman Debbie Dingle: Here's a reality. No one state should have a lock on going first! (applause)
Artie Blanco: Fellow Democrats, you can't say you're for elevating this coalition's voice, but still ask us to wait our turn. I'm done waiting!
Leah Daughtry: I've heard a lot about this being about punishment. This was not about punishment. This was about acknowledgement.
One of the last speakers was that voice you heard up at the top of the show: Leah Daughtry. The pastor who went to college in New Hampshire, who said she’s got New Hampshire granite in her blood and her brain.
Leah Daughtry: Now, the Supreme Court has been clear that the party has the right to set its rules. And you can have a law that says you're first. Well, then I'm from New York. I'm going to petition my governor that we should be first and you petition your govern– so we're going to have 56 state parties that all have a state law that says they should be first. It's not fair. It's not right. And so I want to urge you to vote for change because change is overdue. But change is now. Thank you. (cheers)
Jaime Harrison: With that, we will move to a vote on the motion to approve the report of the Rules and Bylaws Committee. All those in favor of approving the report say “aye.” (“Aye!”) All opposed, “nay.” (“Nay!”) The ayes have it and the report and the Rules and Bylaws Committee has been adopted.
[theme music up and out]
So, the stranglehold enters uncharted waters.
Think about it like this. The New Hampshire primary always had two halves: Democrat and Republican. One half is being rewritten as we speak. The other half remains unchanged.
In 2024, the GOP still plans to caucus first in Iowa, then primary in New Hampshire, on down the line. As of the day I’m recording this, the only Republicans who’ve declared their candidacy, they’ve already dropped in.
Trump: You have it. You’re first and you’re gonna remain first, OK? (applause, cheers)
Nikki Haley: You have a beautiful state. You have an even more beautiful motto: To live free or die. (applause, cheers)
[theme music out]
So New Hampshire maintains its grip on the GOP. For Democrats, though, it’s murky. Again, my colleague, Josh Rogers.
Josh Rogers: I believe state election officials when they say they're going to be holding a primary.
The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee gave New Hampshire until June to comply with its ultimatum… which seems unlikely.
So, looking down the line, whether 2024 or 2028, let’s say New Hampshire election officials do what they say they’re gonna do: They hold a primary for both parties ahead of South Carolina. Democratic candidates will have a choice to make.
Josh Rogers: The only thing that's ever made the New Hampshire primary what it is is the fact that people have chosen to compete here, candidates want to run here. Like, there are worse things to do than win a state primary that people have heard of, regardless of how many people vote here, regardless of whether it's fully approved of by the party.
Maybe there are Democratic candidates who still see a path to the White House through New Hampshire — maybe a win here doesn’t get them any delegates, but it garners them a whole bunch of national media attention, and the momentum that comes along with that attention. Maybe.
Or maybe candidates decide to go straight to the state that, for the time being, seems to pick presidents.
(phone ringing)
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: No more callin’! Have a good day! I'm so sorry. You… you took a little bit longer, so my client...
This is Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman and I called her up because she lives in the bluest county in South Carolina.
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: And I am county chair of the Richland County Democratic Party.
Richland County is already very plugged in. The city of Columbia is there, the state capital, and it overlaps with the district of Congressman James Clyburn. He’s an elder statesman of Democratic politics in South Carolina, and his endorsement was crucial to Biden carrying the state in the 2020 primary.
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: We do our job here in Richland County. We turn out the vote.
Deyaska is going to be at the crossroads of everything that lays ahead in Democratic politics. And whatever mythology New Hampshire has about its place in presidential politics, here’s the story Deyaska tells about South Carolina:
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: We've been called and we're answering that call. It was a crowded field in 2020 – super crowded Democratic field. And South Carolina, and because of Congressman Clyburn and because of our excellent discernment and judgment, decided that we needed someone to save the country.
Jack Rodolico: Like, you frame it sort of like a superhero origin story. Forgive me if that seems a little overblown.
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: Yes, Jack! Jack, Jack, I think we were the firewall between good and, you know, a slippery slope back into more extremist Trump-like, January Sixth, insurrection-style politics.
Jack Rodolico: How do you feel personally?
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: I feel responsible. It's a tall order and South Carolina is ready to fill the order. Remind me, who was it that New Hampshire– out at the New Hampshire primary, who was it that you guys nominated to become president?
Jack Rodolico: Which time? Are we talking last time?
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: Yeah, last time, 2020.
Jack Rodolico: It was Bernie. Biden was fifth.
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: See?! Oh my god, you guys are so progressive in New Hampshire! And I love New Hampshire. Quaint, cute, tuned in. But that's not palatable to the whole of America. And I don't see New Hampshire not supporting South Carolina when South Carolina has always supported New Hampshire.
Jack Rodolico: I think you underestimate or overestimate New Hampshire a little bit. (laughter)
Deyaska Spencer-Sweatman: Oh no! Don’t tell me that!
Jack Rodolico: Sorry to say, I mean, you know, that's just my opinion.
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This episode of Stranglehold was reported and produced by me, Jack Rodolico.
It was edited by Katie Colaneri.
Dan Barrick and Rebecca Lavoie are Executive Producers.
Additional editing by Casey McDermott, Jason Moon, and Josh Rogers.
Mixing by Rebecca Lavoie. Music by Jason Moon and Lucas Anderson. Graphics by Sara Plourde.
Stranglehold is a production of New Hampshire Public Radio.
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Previously on Stranglehold… Previously on Stranglehold…Previously on Stranglehold… muah-ah-ah-ah!